Residents in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region have begun stocking up on food, cash and basic supplies as renewed fighting raises fears that the country could return to a wider conflict.
The latest escalation has spread beyond Tigray, with clashes reported in neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. The developments have raised concerns about the durability of the 2022 peace agreement that ended Ethiopia’s devastating two-year Tigray war.
Fighting spreads beyond Tigray
Forces aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, seized control of three airports in Tigray on September 23, according to Reuters and conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED.
The forces also launched attacks in neighbouring Afar and Amhara, where fighting has continued. ACLED reported clashes on September 24 along the Tigray-Afar border and in several areas of Amhara.
The developments represent the most serious escalation since the 2020-2022 Tigray war.
The scale and direction of the latest fighting remain fluid, and information from the conflict zones is difficult to independently verify.
TPLF describes the situation as full-scale war
The TPLF has described the latest confrontation as a major war with the federal government.
TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa told AFP that the group considered the situation to be a “full-blown war” and confirmed fighting in Afar and Amhara.
The Ethiopian federal government has presented the developments differently, accusing Tigrayan forces of launching an offensive against government positions.
Reuters reported that Ethiopian officials described the latest attacks as a major offensive that had shattered the four-year-old peace arrangement.
The competing accounts mean that individual battlefield claims should be treated cautiously until independently corroborated.
Residents prepare for possible wider conflict
The renewed violence has already affected civilian behaviour.
Reuters reported on September 24 that residents in Tigray were withdrawing cash and buying food and other necessities because of fears that the fighting could develop into another major war.
The concern is particularly significant because the region remains affected by the consequences of the previous conflict, including displacement and damage to infrastructure and public services.
The earlier war lasted from 2020 until the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022.
The conflict produced a severe humanitarian crisis, with estimates of the death toll reaching hundreds of thousands.
The peace agreement faces renewed pressure
The Pretoria agreement brought an end to the main phase of fighting between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF.
However, several issues remained unresolved, including political disputes, territorial questions and the reintegration and disarmament of forces.
Tensions increased again during 2026, with clashes and military activity reported before the latest escalation.
ACLED said lower-intensity fighting had been taking place since August and that Tigrayan forces had increased deployments of heavy weapons in parts of southern Tigray during September.
The latest offensive therefore follows months of deteriorating relations rather than emerging without warning.
Wider armed alliance adds uncertainty
The escalation also comes days after seven Ethiopian armed and political groups announced an alliance seeking to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
The coalition includes the TPLF and the Amhara Fano movement, groups that fought on opposing sides during the 2020-2022 war.
Reuters reported that the alliance includes groups from several regions and ethnic constituencies, although significant differences remain among its members over territory, politics and strategy.
The federal government has accused Eritrea of supporting the alliance, while Eritrea has denied such allegations.
The extent to which the different groups can coordinate military operations remains uncertain.
Eritrea remains a major regional concern
The renewed fighting also raises concerns about the wider Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia and Eritrea have a complicated relationship. Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops during the earlier Tigray war, but relations have subsequently deteriorated.
AFP reported that analysts fear the renewed conflict could draw Eritrea into a broader confrontation, although there is no confirmed indication that Eritrean forces have formally entered the latest fighting.
The possibility of regional involvement is particularly sensitive because Ethiopia’s relations with Eritrea and neighbouring countries are already affected by disputes over security and access to the Red Sea.
Air travel has been disrupted
The escalation has also affected civilian transportation.
Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to three airports in Tigray after Tigrayan forces took control of the facilities, according to reporting on the latest fighting.
The airports include facilities serving major Tigrayan population centres.
Suspension of air services can make humanitarian access and civilian movement more difficult if the security situation deteriorates further.
Humanitarian concerns are growing
The renewed fighting comes as Tigray continues to recover from the previous war.
Humanitarian needs remain significant, while displacement and damage to essential services have complicated recovery.
A return to sustained fighting could therefore create additional displacement and disrupt access to food, healthcare and other essential services.
The humanitarian consequences will depend heavily on whether the latest clashes remain geographically limited or develop into a prolonged conflict.
What happens next
The immediate question is whether the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan forces can prevent the latest fighting from developing into a broader war.
The continued clashes in Afar and Amhara are particularly important because they indicate that the confrontation is no longer confined to Tigray.
The new alliance involving the TPLF and other armed groups adds another layer of uncertainty, although its practical ability to coordinate operations remains unclear.
For civilians, the priority remains avoiding another large-scale humanitarian crisis.
For the wider region, the potential involvement of neighbouring states could make the consequences considerably more difficult to contain.
As of September 24, fighting was continuing and the situation remained fluid. Claims from the different sides should therefore be treated as developing information until independently verified.
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