Fighting Escalates in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region as War Fears Grow

Fighting has escalated in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region, raising fears that a fragile peace agreement could collapse and that renewed violence could spread beyond Tigray.

Tigrayan forces have seized three local airports and clashed with Ethiopian federal troops in several locations, according to Reuters. The escalation is the most serious outbreak of fighting since the devastating 2020-2022 Tigray war.

The renewed fighting comes after months of deteriorating relations between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigray’s political leadership.

It also takes place against a complicated regional backdrop involving Eritrea, Sudan’s civil war, tensions over Red Sea access and armed groups operating in several parts of Ethiopia.

Fighting breaks out across northern Ethiopia

The latest escalation began in September, with fighting reported in Tigray and neighbouring areas.

Reuters reported that Tigrayan forces seized three airports and launched attacks in parts of the Afar and Amhara regions with allied forces. The developments prompted fears that the conflict could expand beyond Tigray itself.

The Ethiopian government has accused the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF, of launching a major offensive.

Tigrayan authorities have presented a different account, saying their forces entered what they described as a defensive war against aggression by the federal government.

The competing accounts mean that claims about who initiated particular attacks should be treated separately from the independently reported fact that fighting has resumed.

The 2022 peace agreement is under severe strain

The renewed violence threatens the peace process that ended the previous Tigray war.

The 2020-2022 conflict between Tigrayan forces and Ethiopia’s federal government killed hundreds of thousands of people, according to widely cited estimates, and produced a major humanitarian crisis.

The Pretoria Agreement, brokered with African Union involvement, formally ended the war in November 2022.

The agreement provided a framework for ending hostilities and beginning a political process.

However, implementation has remained difficult, with disputes over territory, political authority and security continuing after the ceasefire.

Reuters reports that tensions increased after divisions emerged within the TPLF and a hardline faction regained control in Tigray.

Tigray has formed a wider armed alliance

The renewed confrontation is also occurring alongside a broader political and military realignment inside Ethiopia.

Seven Ethiopian armed groups, including the TPLF and the Amhara Fano National Movement, announced an alliance in September aimed at challenging Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

The coalition brings together groups that have previously been on opposing sides of Ethiopia’s conflicts.

The alliance’s existence does not necessarily mean that all seven groups are operating together on the battlefield.

Reuters has reported that the groups remain divided over political and territorial questions, while their geographic separation could make coordinated military action difficult.

Nevertheless, the alliance adds another layer to Ethiopia’s security crisis.

Ethiopia and Eritrea relations are another concern

Relations between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea have also deteriorated.

The two countries ended decades of hostility after Abiy became prime minister, with the rapprochement contributing to Abiy receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.

The relationship changed significantly during and after the Tigray war.

Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops during the 2020-2022 conflict. Eritrea was not a party to the Pretoria peace agreement, and relations with Addis Ababa subsequently became increasingly tense.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups opposed to the federal government.

Asmara has denied the allegations.

Access to the Red Sea adds strategic pressure

Ethiopia’s lack of a coastline has also become an important element of regional tensions.

Eritrea controls the Red Sea ports of Massawa and Assab, while Ethiopia lost its coastline when Eritrea became independent in 1993.

Ethiopian officials have repeatedly stressed the strategic importance of reliable access to the sea.

Eritrea, meanwhile, has expressed concern about Ethiopia’s ambitions regarding Red Sea access.

Reuters has identified the issue as one of the factors contributing to deteriorating relations between the two countries.

The dispute is particularly sensitive because the Red Sea has become strategically important amid conflicts and disruptions elsewhere in the region.

Sudan’s war complicates the situation

Ethiopia is also surrounded by countries facing serious security challenges.

Sudan has been fighting a separate war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces since April 2023.

The conflict has destabilised parts of the region and generated large refugee movements.

Reuters has reported that Ethiopia has been accused of supporting the RSF, an allegation Addis Ababa denies. The issue is particularly sensitive because Ethiopia maintains close relations with the United Arab Emirates, which has itself faced allegations concerning support for the RSF. The UAE denies those accusations.

The overlapping conflicts make a renewed Ethiopian war potentially more difficult to contain than the previous Tigray conflict.

Communications have been disrupted

The escalation has also affected communications.

Reuters reported that internet and telephone networks were disrupted in Tigray on September 25 as fighting intensified. Ethiopia’s military said it had inflicted major losses on Tigrayan forces, although battlefield claims from the sides cannot be independently verified.

Communications disruptions create additional difficulties for civilians and humanitarian organisations attempting to assess conditions.

They can also make independent verification of battlefield developments more difficult.

Residents prepare for shortages

Residents in parts of Tigray have begun preparing for the possibility that the fighting could become prolonged.

Reuters reported that people in Mekelle and other locations were buying food, withdrawing cash and seeking essential supplies amid fears of a return to conditions experienced during the previous war. Residents also reported shortages of medicines and rising prices, although individual accounts cannot independently establish the scale of shortages across the region.

The previous conflict demonstrated how quickly disruption to transport, communications and supply chains can create humanitarian consequences.

The renewed fighting has therefore raised concerns among residents even before the scale of the humanitarian impact becomes clear.

Flights have been affected

The fighting has also disrupted transportation.

Reuters reported that flights to the historic town of Lalibela were suspended because of nearby fighting. Lalibela is in the Amhara region and is internationally known for its medieval rock-hewn churches.

The suspension illustrates how the consequences of the conflict can extend beyond areas where direct fighting is taking place.

Transport disruptions can affect civilians, humanitarian operations and tourism.

International calls for restraint

The United Nations and European Union have called for restraint and a return to the African Union-backed peace process.

The EU said differences should be resolved through dialogue rather than military action.

The appeals reflect concern that continued fighting could undermine the Pretoria Agreement and create a much broader security crisis.

The African Union’s role is particularly significant because its peace process helped produce the agreement that ended the previous war.

Why the escalation matters beyond Tigray

A renewed conflict would not necessarily remain confined to the region.

Tigray borders Eritrea and Sudan, while nearby Afar and Amhara regions have already been affected by the latest military activity.

Ethiopia also has significant armed groups operating in other parts of the country.

Reuters has warned that the wider Horn of Africa is already facing an unusually volatile security environment because of Sudan’s war, instability in Somalia, Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions and geopolitical developments connected to conflicts in the Middle East.

A prolonged conflict could therefore affect displacement, humanitarian operations, trade routes and regional security.

The humanitarian risk is significant

The previous Tigray war caused extensive civilian suffering.

Large numbers of people were displaced, food supplies were disrupted and humanitarian access was severely restricted.

The current escalation has not yet been established as a return to the scale of the 2020-2022 war.

However, the combination of renewed fighting, communications disruptions, transport interruptions and reported shortages has created clear humanitarian concerns.

The immediate priority for humanitarian agencies is maintaining access to civilians and preventing further deterioration.

The political dispute remains unresolved

The renewed fighting reflects deeper disagreements over political authority and security arrangements in Ethiopia.

The TPLF and federal government have competing interpretations of the post-war political settlement, while questions over territory and the return of displaced people remain sensitive.

The emergence of a broader armed alliance also means that the government’s dispute with Tigray is no longer the only major security challenge facing Addis Ababa.

The federal government has continued to reject attempts to challenge its authority through armed action.

Opposition armed groups argue that the government has concentrated political power and failed to resolve regional grievances.

Those competing claims remain part of the political dispute and should not be treated as independently established explanations for every episode of violence.

What happens next

The immediate concern is whether the current clashes can be contained and whether the parties return to negotiations.

The Ethiopian government has indicated that dialogue remains possible for groups willing to lay down their arms, according to Reuters reporting.

Tigrayan leaders, meanwhile, have described their military actions as defensive.

The role of Eritrea and other regional actors will also be closely watched because outside involvement could broaden the conflict.

A fragile peace faces its biggest test since 2022

As of September 27, 2026, fighting has resumed in northern Ethiopia and the Pretoria peace settlement faces its most serious challenge since the 2022 agreement.

It is not yet possible to establish whether the escalation will develop into a full-scale war comparable to the 2020-2022 conflict.

What is clear is that the fighting has already spread beyond isolated incidents, communications have been disrupted, transport has been affected and civilians are preparing for possible shortages.

International and regional calls for restraint are now competing with renewed military mobilisation.

Whether Ethiopia returns to the negotiating table or enters a broader cycle of conflict will depend on decisions by the federal government, Tigrayan authorities, armed groups elsewhere in the country and neighbouring states.

For civilians in Tigray and surrounding regions, the immediate concern remains preventing another prolonged war and maintaining access to food, medicine and essential services.