Rising Fuel Prices Add Cost-of-Living Pressure in Nigeria

Rising petrol prices are adding fresh cost-of-living pressure in Nigeria, with pump prices reaching around ₦1,400 per litre in Lagos and Abuja and as high as ₦1,500 in parts of the country, according to recent market reports.

The increases have come as international crude oil prices have risen amid continuing conflict and supply concerns in the Middle East. Reuters reported that the higher global oil prices were feeding through into Nigeria’s domestic fuel market despite the country’s growing refining capacity.

The development comes less than four months before Nigeria’s presidential and National Assembly elections, which the Independent National Electoral Commission has scheduled for January 16, 2027.

Petrol prices rise above ₦1,400

Fuel prices have increased substantially at filling stations in several parts of Nigeria during September.

Reuters reported on September 21 that petrol was selling for approximately ₦1,400 per litre in Lagos and Abuja and up to ₦1,500 in northern Nigeria. Diesel prices had also moved above ₦2,000 per litre.

Earlier in September, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its petrol gantry price from ₦1,265 to ₦1,350 per litre.

The increase took effect on September 12 and represented the refinery’s fourth upward adjustment since August 21. The combined increase over that period amounted to ₦185 per litre.

Pump prices vary between marketers and locations, meaning the price paid by consumers can differ significantly from one filling station or state to another.

Global crude prices are a major factor

The latest increases have occurred against a backdrop of elevated international oil prices.

Reuters reported that Brent crude was trading close to $100 per barrel in September as geopolitical tensions continued to affect expectations about global oil supplies.

Nigeria remains exposed to movements in international energy markets because the domestic price of petroleum products is affected by the cost of crude and other components of the downstream supply chain.

The impact has continued even as domestic refining capacity has expanded.

Reuters reported that the Dangote refinery was operating at full capacity of about 700,000 barrels per day at the time of its September report. However, the refinery’s higher wholesale petrol price showed that domestic refining does not completely insulate Nigerian consumers from changes in international crude prices.

Pressure extends beyond motorists

Higher petrol prices affect more than the direct cost of filling a vehicle.

Transport operators face higher fuel expenses, which can affect the cost of moving passengers and goods. Businesses that depend on road transportation can also face increased logistics expenses.

The effect can extend to food distribution because agricultural products and other consumer goods frequently travel significant distances between producers, markets and consumers.

Diesel prices are also relevant to businesses that depend on diesel-powered vehicles and equipment. Reuters reported that diesel prices in Nigeria had risen above ₦2,000 per litre amid a wider global shortage of the fuel.

Inflation had been easing

The latest fuel-price increases are occurring while Nigeria’s headline inflation rate has been lower than it was earlier in the year.

The National Bureau of Statistics currently reports headline inflation of 15.39%, core inflation of 13.29% and food inflation of 19.57% under the country’s rebased Consumer Price Index, with 2024 as the base period.

The NBS figures indicate that inflation has eased considerably from previous levels, but food prices remain an important component of household expenditure.

Higher energy and transportation costs can create additional price pressure across the economy, although the eventual effect on overall inflation depends on several factors.

Fuel prices enter the 2027 election period

The timing gives the fuel-price issue an important political context.

INEC’s official election calendar lists January 16, 2027, for the presidential and National Assembly elections, followed by governorship and State House of Assembly elections on February 6.

Fuel pricing has already featured prominently in Nigeria’s economic debate since the removal of the petrol subsidy.

The current price increases are therefore occurring during a period when the government’s economic reforms and their effects on household and business costs are likely to receive continued public and political attention.

Different political actors may interpret the price developments differently. For news reporting, however, the measurable issues are the movement in pump prices, the factors affecting fuel costs and their consequences for transportation, businesses and households.

What happens next

The direction of international crude prices will remain an important factor for Nigeria’s downstream fuel market.

A sustained increase in global oil prices could continue to put pressure on domestic petrol and diesel prices, while a significant reduction in international crude prices could ease some of that pressure.

Domestic refining capacity may also affect the market over time, particularly as Nigerian refiners increase production and compete for domestic fuel demand.

For consumers, the immediate issue is whether current pump prices remain elevated and how those prices affect transportation and other household expenses.

As of September 27, 2026, Nigeria is experiencing renewed fuel-price pressure at a time when inflation has eased from earlier levels and the country is approaching the January 2027 presidential and National Assembly elections. The available evidence establishes the price increases and their economic context, but does not establish how voters will respond to them.