Nigeria Begins Nationwide Out-of-School Children Survey

Nigeria is preparing a nationwide household survey to establish a more accurate number of children who are currently out of school, amid significant differences between estimates published by government agencies and international organisations.

Education Minister Tunji Alausa said the Federal Government was preparing to work with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on a grid-based household survey covering all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The exercise is expected to take about eight months and is intended to identify both the number of out-of-school children and the households and locations where they live.

The proposed survey comes as policymakers face competing estimates of the size of Nigeria’s out-of-school population.

Why Nigeria wants a new count

For years, figures for Nigeria’s out-of-school children have varied substantially depending on the source, age group, methodology and year of the underlying data.

A recent report by PUNCH quoted Alausa as saying preliminary information available to the ministry suggested the actual figure could be between seven million and eight million, substantially below the often-cited estimates of 15 million to 17.5 million. The minister said the new survey is intended to establish the number using household-level information rather than relying primarily on projections.

Those figures should not yet be treated as the result of a completed national enumeration.

The survey has been proposed specifically because the government wants updated data. Until the exercise is completed and its methodology and findings are published, the actual nationwide total remains unsettled.

Why existing estimates differ

UNICEF currently states that about 10.5 million children aged 5 to 14 are out of school in Nigeria. The organisation also says only 61 percent of children aged 6 to 11 regularly attend primary school.

Other UNICEF material has used broader age categories and older datasets. Its education programme documentation previously cited 10.2 million children at primary level and 8.1 million at junior secondary level as out of school.

The difference does not necessarily mean that one organisation is simply right and another is wrong.

The figures can cover different age groups, reference years and definitions of school attendance. Some are based on surveys or administrative information, while others involve population projections.

That is one reason the methodology of the proposed national household survey will be important.

Government wants household-level information

The planned survey is expected to go beyond estimating a national total.

According to Alausa’s comments reported by PUNCH, the exercise would identify households and locations where out-of-school children live.

That type of information could give education authorities a more detailed basis for planning interventions.

Knowing that a particular number of children are out of school nationally is useful, but policymakers also need to know where those children are concentrated, their ages, whether they have previously attended school and the factors preventing attendance.

The resulting information could therefore influence decisions about school construction, teacher deployment, education financing, enrolment campaigns and targeted support.

Kaduna experience is part of the argument

The Education Minister has pointed to household-level exercises in several states as evidence that conventional estimates can differ significantly from locally collected data.

Alausa cited Kaduna, where he said the estimated number of out-of-school children fell from about 585,000 to approximately 190,000 after a household survey. He also referred to similar exercises in Kano, Zamfara and Sokoto.

Those state-level experiences are part of the government’s argument for conducting a broader national exercise.

However, results from individual states cannot automatically be treated as representative of Nigeria as a whole. A national survey will need a transparent sampling and counting methodology that can be independently assessed.

UNICEF’s current picture remains serious

Even before the new survey, available data indicate that Nigeria has a substantial education-access problem.

UNICEF says one in five of the world’s out-of-school children is in Nigeria. It estimates that about 10.5 million Nigerian children aged 5 to 14 are not in school.

The problem is particularly pronounced in northern parts of the country.

UNICEF reports that the North has a net school attendance rate of about 53 percent and identifies poverty, insecurity, geography and socio-cultural factors among the barriers affecting children’s access to formal education.

The organisation also says that more than half of children in the North-West are out of school, according to its June 2026 assessment of the region.

These figures underline why obtaining a reliable national baseline matters regardless of whether the final number is higher or lower than previous estimates.

Counting children is only the first step

A more accurate number would not, by itself, put children back into classrooms.

Nigeria also faces problems involving school infrastructure, teacher availability, household income, insecurity, transportation and learning outcomes.

A September 2026 UNICEF report on public financing for basic education noted that Nigeria’s education spending as a share of total government expenditure declined from 9.3 percent in 2015 to 3.6 percent in 2023, below the international benchmark cited in the report.

The same report highlighted significant learning gaps among children who are already enrolled in school.

This means the policy challenge has two connected parts: getting children into school and ensuring that children who attend actually learn.

Poverty and insecurity remain major barriers

The reasons children remain outside school differ between communities.

Poverty can make school-related expenses difficult for families, while insecurity can make travelling to or attending school unsafe. In some communities, social and cultural practices also affect whether children, particularly girls, attend formal education.

UNICEF identifies economic barriers, socio-cultural factors and insecurity among the issues affecting education participation, especially in northern Nigeria.

The education crisis is also linked to wider humanitarian conditions. UNICEF says millions of people in northern Nigeria are affected by conflict and displacement, with children facing disrupted learning and risks including attacks and abduction.

A national household survey could help identify how these different factors vary across regions.

Why the methodology will matter

The credibility of the eventual figure will depend heavily on how the survey is conducted.

A useful national count would need clearly defined age categories, consistent definitions of school attendance, transparent sampling methods and appropriate treatment of children attending different forms of education.

The results would also benefit from independent scrutiny and comparison with existing datasets.

This matters because the number produced by the survey could influence national education planning and international reporting. A change in the headline figure would not necessarily mean that millions of children suddenly entered or left school. It could instead reflect a change in how the population was measured.

What happens next

The Federal Government and NBS are expected to proceed with preparations for the nationwide household exercise.

The proposed eight-month timeline means the process is likely to extend well beyond the initial announcement. The eventual publication of the methodology and state-by-state findings will be important for assessing how the new estimate compares with existing UNICEF, World Bank and Nigerian datasets.

For now, Nigeria does not have a newly completed national household enumeration that settles the disagreement over the total number of out-of-school children.

What is clear is that the government wants a more detailed and current evidence base for education planning.

Whether the final figure is closer to seven million, 10 million, 15 million or another number, the policy question will remain the same: how can Nigeria use reliable data to identify children outside the education system and get them into safe, effective learning?