Nigeria Inflation Falls to 15.39% as Food Prices Slow in August

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, down marginally from 15.43 per cent in July, as the pace of monthly price increases and food inflation slowed during the month.

The latest figure was contained in the August 2026 Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics. It represents a decline of 0.04 percentage points from July and a substantial reduction from the 23.14 per cent recorded in August 2025.

The August figures show two different developments. Annual inflation declined only slightly, but the monthly rate at which consumer prices increased fell much more sharply.

Monthly inflation slows sharply

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation fell to 0.71 per cent in August, compared with 1.57 per cent in July.

That represents a reduction of 0.86 percentage points.

The NBS said the movement means the average price level increased at a slower rate in August than it did in July.

The distinction matters because a fall in the inflation rate does not mean that prices have generally fallen.

Rather, inflation measures the rate at which prices are changing. When inflation falls from 15.43 per cent to 15.39 per cent, prices are still increasing, but the annual rate of increase has slowed slightly.

The Consumer Price Index itself rose from 145.3 points in July to 146.3 points in August, showing that the overall price level continued to move higher.

Food inflation drops to 19.57%

Food prices provided a larger part of the August moderation.

Food inflation fell to 19.57 per cent year-on-year, compared with 20.31 per cent in July and 25.30 per cent in August 2025.

The monthly food inflation rate also dropped sharply, falling to 1.02 per cent in August from 5.56 per cent in July. That represents a 4.55 percentage-point decline in monthly food-price growth.

The NBS attributed the movement partly to changes in the average prices of several food products, including palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, yam flour, water yam, melon, fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken and turkey.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to the annual headline inflation rate, accounting for 6.16 percentage points.

Restaurants and accommodation services contributed 1.99 percentage points, while transport contributed 1.64 percentage points and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels contributed 1.30 percentage points.

Core inflation also moderates

The August data also showed moderation in core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural products and energy prices.

Core inflation stood at 13.29 per cent year-on-year in August.

On a monthly basis, core inflation was -0.06 per cent, compared with 0.15 per cent in July.

This indicates that the August slowdown was not limited entirely to food prices, although the broader inflation picture still varies substantially across different goods, services and locations.

Inflation remains uneven across Nigeria

National averages mask substantial differences between locations.

Urban inflation stood at 15.88 per cent year-on-year in August, compared with 16.12 per cent in July.

Rural inflation was lower at 14.23 per cent, but its monthly movement was faster. Rural month-on-month inflation increased to 1.79 per cent from 0.78 per cent in July, while urban monthly inflation slowed to 0.28 per cent from 1.90 per cent.

At the state level, Lagos recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation rate at 23.68 per cent, followed by Zamfara at 22.56 per cent and Enugu at 22.06 per cent.

Sokoto recorded the lowest at 2.11 per cent.

The NBS has cautioned that state-level comparisons should be interpreted carefully because differences in consumption patterns and CPI weights can affect the figures.

Food inflation also differed sharply across states.

Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation at 38.85 per cent, followed by Zamfara at 37.96 per cent and Bayelsa at 36.20 per cent.

The differences illustrate why the national inflation figure does not necessarily describe the experience of every household in Nigeria.

What the August figure means for households

The headline figure provides a measure of the average change in consumer prices across the economy. Individual households, however, experience inflation differently depending on what they buy.

For a household that spends a large proportion of its income on food, transport and housing, movements in those categories can have a greater practical effect than the national headline rate suggests.

Food remained the biggest contributor to Nigeria’s annual inflation rate in August, while transport and housing-related categories also continued to contribute to the overall figure.

The distinction between annual and monthly inflation is also important.

The 15.39 per cent figure compares prices with the same period a year earlier. The 0.71 per cent monthly figure measures the change from July to August.

Therefore, August’s lower inflation rate does not mean Nigerian consumers suddenly paid less for goods and services across the board.

It means the pace of price increases was slower than before.

Why food prices matter so much

Food occupies a significant place in household spending, making changes in food prices particularly important to consumers.

The sharp reduction in monthly food inflation from 5.56 per cent in July to 1.02 per cent in August is therefore one of the most significant parts of the latest report.

The improvement also comes after a period in which food-price movements had been putting pressure on the overall inflation picture.

The NBS data show that food inflation was 25.30 per cent year-on-year in August 2025 before falling to 19.57 per cent in August 2026.

That year-on-year comparison indicates a substantial reduction in the annual pace of food-price increases, although the latest figure still means food prices were considerably higher than a year earlier.

Businesses will also be watching the data

The inflation figures matter beyond household budgets.

Businesses use inflation data when making decisions about pricing, wages, investment, inventories and operating costs.

A slower rate of monthly price growth can make cost planning easier if the trend persists. However, individual companies can still face higher costs even when headline inflation is falling because businesses are exposed to different combinations of energy, transport, imported inputs, labour and financing costs.

The latest NBS figures therefore provide evidence of moderation in overall price growth, but they do not establish that all business costs have fallen.

What happens next?

The key question is whether the August slowdown continues in subsequent months.

The latest figures provide evidence of lower price-growth momentum in August, particularly in food prices and on a month-to-month basis. But inflation remains elevated relative to the level implied by price stability, and regional differences remain substantial.

Private-sector representatives cited by The Punch have also expressed caution about the latest figures, arguing that higher energy costs could create renewed pressure on businesses and consumers. Those comments are assessments from business groups rather than NBS forecasts.

Future inflation readings will therefore be important for determining whether August represents part of a continuing moderation in price growth or a temporary movement.

For Nigerian households, the practical issue is straightforward: prices are still rising, but the latest data show that they rose more slowly in August than in July.

The next inflation report will show whether that slower pace can be sustained.