Nigeria’s Exports to Africa Hit N10.72tn as Oil Dominates

Nigeria’s exports to other African countries rose to N10.72 trillion in the first half of 2026, more than doubling the N4.82 trillion recorded during the same period in 2025.

The increase represents a 122.26% rise in naira terms, according to an analysis of National Bureau of Statistics foreign trade data for the first and second quarters of 2026.

But the headline increase comes with an important qualification. Petroleum and other energy-related commodities accounted for most of Nigeria’s exports to the continent, meaning the rise does not by itself demonstrate a comparable expansion in non-oil trade.

Oil and gas drive the increase

Crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea accounted for an estimated 94.75% of Nigeria’s exports to Africa during the first half of 2026.

The combined value of those products was about N10.15 trillion, compared with approximately N4.35 trillion in the first half of 2025, when they represented 90.24% of exports to Africa.

The oil and gas value chain therefore grew faster than Nigeria’s overall exports to the continent during the period.

The data also show how strongly petroleum products shaped Nigeria’s trade with other African economies.

Q2 exports reached N6.65tn

The concentration was particularly visible in the second quarter.

Nigeria exported goods worth approximately N6.65 trillion to African countries in Q2 2026, according to the NBS-based analysis.

Togo was the largest destination, receiving about N1.50 trillion worth of Nigerian exports. South Africa followed with N1.34 trillion, while Côte d’Ivoire accounted for about N1.22 trillion.

Ghana and Egypt recorded approximately N461.36 billion and N455.81 billion respectively.

Together, those five countries accounted for 74.75% of Nigeria’s exports to Africa during the quarter.

Petroleum products dominate the export basket

Crude petroleum alone accounted for 48.58% of Nigeria’s exports to Africa in Q2, with a value of about N3.23 trillion.

Gas oil followed at approximately N1.32 trillion.

Kerosene-type jet fuel was valued at about N975.37 billion, while ordinary motor spirit accounted for approximately N416.78 billion.

The leading petroleum and energy-related products therefore represented the overwhelming majority of Nigeria’s exports to the continent during the quarter.

The figures also reflect the growing role of refined petroleum products in Nigeria’s regional trade.

Non-oil exports remain a concern

The increase in overall exports has not been matched by similar growth across identifiable non-oil products.

An analysis of the leading product lines reported by the NBS showed that identifiable non-oil products, including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations, declined from approximately N309.46 billion in H1 2025 to N296.61 billion in H1 2026.

That represents a decline of about 4.15%.

Their share of total exports to Africa also fell from 6.42% to 2.77% over the period.

The PUNCH noted that these non-oil figures are estimates based on the leading product lines disclosed in the NBS quarterly trade data. The NBS does not separately publish a complete product-by-product breakdown of all exports to Africa in the reports used for the analysis.

That qualification is important when interpreting the figures.

The naira effect matters

The sharp rise in the naira value of exports also needs to be considered alongside changes in the exchange rate.

Economist Ayo Teriba told The PUNCH that naira depreciation can make the local-currency value of trade appear to increase significantly even when the underlying foreign-currency earnings have not risen by the same proportion.

This means a comparison based solely on naira values can overstate the real expansion in trade.

The issue is particularly relevant when examining Nigeria’s export performance because commodities such as crude oil are generally traded internationally in foreign currencies.

Consequently, the N10.72 trillion figure should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that Nigeria’s physical volume or foreign-currency export earnings to Africa increased by 122.26%.

Nigeria’s six-year export increase

Nigeria’s exports to African countries have increased substantially in naira terms over the past six years.

Exports stood at about N1.38 trillion in the first half of 2020.

They fell to N963 billion in H1 2021 and N904.05 billion in H1 2022 before rising to N1.31 trillion in H1 2023.

The figure then increased sharply to N4.21 trillion in H1 2024, reached N4.82 trillion in H1 2025 and climbed to N10.72 trillion in H1 2026.

The six-year increase is substantial in naira terms, but exchange-rate movements make it difficult to use those figures alone to measure the underlying expansion of Nigeria’s regional trade.

AfCFTA opportunity remains significant

Nigeria’s position as one of Africa’s largest economies gives it a potentially large market for regional exports.

The African Continental Free Trade Area is intended to increase trade among African economies by reducing barriers and creating a larger integrated market.

However, capturing a larger share of that market requires Nigerian businesses to produce goods that can compete on price, quality, reliability and scale.

The current export composition shows that petroleum remains the dominant component of Nigeria’s trade with the continent.

A broader export base would require stronger performance from manufacturing, agriculture, processed foods, chemicals, consumer goods and other non-oil industries.

Manufacturing faces pressure

The latest trade figures come against concerns about the competitiveness of Nigeria’s manufacturing sector.

Manufacturers have continued to face high energy costs, financing costs and other production expenses.

Segun Ajayi-Kadir, Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, said the manufacturing sector’s declining share of GDP reflected pressures facing domestic producers.

Manufacturing nevertheless recorded year-on-year growth in the second quarter, according to the same reporting, meaning the issue is not simply whether manufacturing is growing but whether it is expanding quickly enough relative to other parts of the economy.

For regional trade, production capacity matters because businesses need consistent output to take advantage of larger African markets.

Dangote refinery changes the trade picture

The emergence of Nigeria as an exporter of refined petroleum products is another important development.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has expanded Nigeria’s ability to process crude domestically and supply refined products to regional markets.

This can increase the value of petroleum exports even when the underlying trade remains heavily concentrated in the oil and gas sector.

The development therefore creates both an export opportunity and a diversification question.

Nigeria can capture more value from its natural resources by exporting processed products rather than relying entirely on crude exports. However, that remains different from achieving diversification into a broad range of non-oil industries.

What the numbers mean

Nigeria’s N10.72 trillion exports to Africa in the first half of 2026 show that regional trade has become substantially larger in naira terms.

They also show the growing importance of refined petroleum and other energy products in Nigeria’s trade with neighbouring and other African economies.

But the numbers need to be read alongside exchange-rate movements and the composition of exports.

The immediate challenge is therefore not simply increasing the value of exports. It is expanding the range of Nigerian products that can compete in African markets.

For now, Nigeria’s trade growth with Africa remains heavily tied to petroleum.

Whether the country can convert that regional trade growth into broader industrial and non-oil export expansion will depend on the competitiveness and production capacity of Nigerian businesses.